MiLB Day 1: Overreactions – Buy/Sell

Dustin May is going to be the replacement for Clayton Kershaw, not Walker Buehler.

Let’s start it off with a bang. The 24-year-old sensation Walker Buehler struggled in his first start for the Dodgers going 3 IP, 5 H, 5 ER, 1 BB, and 0 K. After coming off a small injury in Spring Training, it may take longer than expected for Buehler to have a quality start in 2019.

While Buehler crumbled in his first outing, Dustin May ripped through his first Double-A start with 5 IP, 2 H, 1 BB, and 9 K. For being 21-years-old in AA, that’s an insane line.

Am I concerned about Walker Buehler? No. Do I think Dustin May has a shot at being good? For sure. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves here; Walker Buehler has the hype he does for a reason. He had a truly outstanding rookie year, and all signs point to a player who will be competing for the Cy Young in the coming years. However, Buehler and May can both be great at the same time, and I think that’s what is going to happen. But when talking about the heir to the throne, insert Buehler into that slot.

Buy/Sell: Sell

Luis Robert’s 55 future game power is going to turn into his 65 raw power.

Luis Robert’s 55 future game power is going to turn into his 65 raw power.

If you haven’t heard yet, Luis Robert destroyed the baseball yesterday sending two out of the park after hitting none in his short amount of play in 2018. If you can recall, I published Luis Robert as a must sell before the season. I still stand by his cards were overpriced before the year, and my faith was not very high, but if the two home runs yesterday are any indication of some power coming, we could be in for a treat.

Of course, there a ton of players that have hit two home runs in a game in the past, and one game of a couple of bombs doesn’t mean too much for the long-term. However, when taking into consideration he showed no signs of power last year, it is awesome to see.

If I have to choose between Robert not hitting for power this year, or hitting for power, I’ll go with he does. Fangraphs believes he can muscle them out of the park, which convinces me he can. While there isn’t enough to go off to guarantee we’ll see a big power year from Robert, I’ll entertain the thought.

Buy/Sell: Buy

Leody Taveras is finally going to live up to his 60-hit future tool and bat .300 in 2019.

Last night Taveras went 4-for-4 with a double, a triple, and a stolen base. He started this season at the same level as last year—High-A.

Talk about a disappointment. Taveras was one of the product staples for 2017 Bowman Chrome when it was released (due to being a hyped prospect at 18/19-years-old), but since then he has been awful.

In 2018, he hit .246 on 521 at-bats with a .644 OPS in High-A. That is absolutely terrible. I tracked him quite often because I had an investment interest in him, but got out before he went on a major slump.

Taveras’ Opening Day performance may have created the biggest overreaction of all. He has shown zero sign of a hit tool over the past two seasons. Maybe he switched something in the off-season, and his debut won’t be a fluke.

I’m not betting on it.

Buy/Sell: Sell

Ryan Weathers will be the best pitcher out of the 2018 Draft.

After being the highest-drafted high school pitcher, this overreaction may not come as a surprise to some of you. I’ve always liked Weathers, but if any of you have watched our live streams, you know I really like the potential of Cole Winn and Matthew Liberatore (the two HS pitchers taken behind Weathers). And here are others like Casey Mize and Brady Singer, two college pitchers, who could land at the top. After Mize’s start yesterday, it is pretty clear he was drafted #1 for a reason.

At 19-years-old in A-ball, Weathers spun 5 IP, 6 H, 0 BB, 0 ER, 9 K yesterday. A very, very nice debut for the young lefty.

When it comes to being the best pitcher out of the 2018 Draft, that is a tall order. There are a ton of pitchers that I like a lot, and Weathers is one of them.

For now, I’m going to call it a hold. Weathers is up there, and by the end of the season, this overreaction could become a reality. Casey Mize is a safe bet to be the top pitcher out of the draft, but Weathers could convince me he can be better three months later.

Buy/Sell: Hold

What overreactions did you hear, read, or notice after Day 1 of the MiLB season?

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