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Thursday, February 07 2019 / Published in Baseball

The Incredible Rise of a Non-Auto 1st Bowman Chrome PSA 10

Over the last few days, I have been hearing a ton of buzz surrounding Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. Does this come as a surprise to me? No, not at all. He is the undisputed top prospect in the game and almost hit .400 last season in the minors.

As I was browsing eBay for some Bowman Chrome autographs, a 1st Bowman Chrome PSA 10 Non-Auto popped up through my search (classic keyword spamming). When I saw it eclipsed over $100 on bids with time remaining, I couldn’t believe my eyes. Not because I think Vlad isn’t a generational hitter for his age. Not because he isn’t in the MLB yet, and his prices are crazy expensive. But because a Bowman Chrome Non-Auto BASE PSA 10 was going for over $100. Today alone, a few buy-it-nows hit $150.

I remember reading somewhere, “Do you ever think 1st Bowman Chrome Refractors will become like the Prizm Basketball Silvers?” At the time, I wanted to say yes. Reason why—it’s an affordable option as opposed to dropping $750+ on a refractor auto of a star player. I had no evidence at the time. But Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will be the evidence to convince people non-autos are a viable investment chip (as long as it spreads to other players).


*Note: All of the sales in the 1-year trend graphs below are auction-only sales.

Before jumping into Vlad, let’s take a look at Ronald Acuña. His trend looks like a heart-rate monitor more than anything I’ve seen, but that can be attributed to injury and an absolute tear towards the end of the year.

SlabStox infographic for 2017 Bowman Chrome Ronald Acuña 1st Bowman PSA 10 sports trading card

While his year-over-year change is only +29.25%, he topped out at $63 towards the end of the season. They have settled way lower (investment opportunity?), but they at least had some good movement during the season. If I were to argue that 1st Bowman PSA 10s can be compared to Prizm PSA 10s based off of Acuña, I wouldn’t get very far. For being one of the best young players in the league, a $38 PSA 10 is nothing to write home about.

SlabStox infographic for 2017 Bowman Ronald Acuña sports trading card

After looking at the big picture, narrowing it down can reveal even more about the value of non-autos. The most recent 1st Bowman PSA 10 base non-auto sold for $38, while the PSA 10 auto version did $899.95 (buy-it-now sale). The base PSA 10 sells at a measly 4.22% of the auto. For someone that won Rookie of the Year and had one of the best leadoff stretches of all-time, I would hope his 1st Bowman Chrome non-auto PSA 10s would be touching $75.

SlabStox infographic for 2016 Bowman Chrome Vladmir Guerrero 1st Bowman PSA 10 sports trading card

By looking at Acuña, we do not learn a whole lot about the potential for non-autos. Zeroing in on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. reveals a whole new world for pre-MLB players, one of which we have never seen before. Last January PSA 10s were selling between $30-$45. Not until Vlad’s monster March did we see one touch $100.

After his injury, prices decreased fast holding around $60. However, with the preseason hype and the consensus top-prospect crown, his cards have been skyrocketing. While that may seem like a good enough explanation for this quick rise in price (+73% in the last two weeks), there has to be more behind it.

Similarly to how people started to get priced out of National Treasures Basketball Rookie Patch Autos, I think we are starting to see that with 1st Bowman Chrome Autographs. Unless you are a Bowman Chrome baller, it is hard to fathom dropping $1,000+ on a Vlad auto. For those that cannot, they are reverting to another 1st Bowman: the Bowman Chrome base. With autos being out of reach for most, a focus on non-autos is likely leading to this price increase.

SlabStox infographic of 2016 Bowman Prospects Vladmir Guerrero, Jr. sports trading card

This is the big difference between Acuña and Vlad. Vlad’s PSA 10 non-auto is selling at 12.24% of his auto version. Yes! Over 12% for a base non-auto (for another comparison, Alex Bregman does between 5% to 7%).

Now, one player does not defines a market. It took a while for the Prizm Silver effect to ripple across all calibers of players. This is not an overnight thing, but it is a trend in the right direction for baseball card investors. But until we see players like Ronald Acuña PSA 10 non-autos start going over $75, we have nothing to hang our hats on.

Will you jump in on 1st Bowman Chrome Base Non-Auto PSA 10s hoping for a ripple effect?

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